Monty Hall Problem Demonstration

Questions to be answered before the simulation are not yet implemented in this test version.


Begin by answering the questions, even if you have to guess. The first time you answer the questions you will not be told whether you are correct or not.


Once you have answered all the questions, answer them again using the simulation to help you. This time you will get feedback about each individual answer.


General Instructions


In the Monty Hall Problem, the contestant is shown three doors. Two of the doors have goats behind them and one has a car. The contestant chooses a door. Before opening the chosen door, Monty Hall opens a door that has a goat behind it. The contestant can then switch to the other unopened door, or stay with the original choice.


In this demonstration, you begin by clicking on a door. A different door showing a goat will then appear. You then either click your original door again or switch to a different door. You will see whether you win a car or a goat. Your cumulative results will be shown at the bottom of the display.


Step By Step Instructions


Play the game several times, sometimes switching and sometimes staying. See how many times you win with each strategy. Play enough times until you are confident about whether switching and staying are equally likely to win a car.


Summary


The results are very counterintuitive. If the contestant was correct on the first choice, then he or she will be incorrect after a switch. Or, if a contestant was incorrect on the first choice, he or she will be correct after a switch. Since the probability of being incorrect on the first choice is 0.667, then the probability of being correct after a switch is 0.6667.